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Wisest of the crowds

- solving problems one market at a time

Who determines housing prices??

By karim February 17, 2007

One of the nice things about creating something that forces people out of the intellectual cave is listening to massive justifications for crap.

For example, one thing that a few people in real estate industry are in love with is this idea that the value of a home is solely determined by the buyer and seller at a negotiation. Further, some are crass enough to suggest, essentially, that value is a nice concept - but that transaction prices are king. Okay, that is true in a vacuum. It is the equivalent of saying the cake is chocolate because the frosting is brown. The cake can be anything and certainly no one would suggest that the frosting is the cake (except my three year old daughter).
Why do I say a vacuum? Because people enter a negotiation with information that they receive from all around - from every conceivable person they know. That information comes explicitly and implicitly. In economics its called “signalling“. The idea is that we receive information signaled from others during a transaction. I think you are not paying enough for my car, I shrug my shoulders and tell you as much. Do I really think your offer is low? If there were several people between you and me in the negotiation could the signal lose its strength or have its meaning altered?

So our actions are a function of this signaling effect. When you rely on signaling from someone, there are many problems, the largest being:

- How can you, the receiver (the principal, who is usually the buyer in the transaction), trust the signal to be an honest declaration of information?

The problem My-Currency’s CrowdValue technology solves is that we bring to the surface this information signaling that is happening underground. That is, we are putting you into the information loop so that you get all the information signals in an unbiased manner. We know there are people who have incentives to send you the wrong information signal. That is, people who use signaling to manipulate you. Markets (e.g., CrowdValue) come closest to solving this signalling problem because it is an open mechanism that serves as a battleground for opinions where information collides until we have reached a neutral and aggregated signal - the price. Furthermore, markets constantly adjust to new information - new signalling.
Bottom line is that markets enable transparency - transparency for all the information that is circulating and perhaps being manipulated before it gets to you.

Is this good for housing pro’s? Yes because people will have more faith in the system and hence transact more frequently. It also gives pro’s an opportunity to show the world that have information and know how to interpret it - by taking actions that are measureable against real outcomes.

So who determines housing prices? Everyone. Everyone connected to the buyer and seller and everyone connected to those connections. Negotiated transactions are final manifetations of the whole network - the whole process. Are consumers getting all the information signals? Mostly no (hence the popularity of AVM’s). Is information passing through the hands of people who have opposite incentives and hence opening the question of whether it is an honest declaration of information? Come on, do I need to spell it out?

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